These are quarterly representations of conditions with respect to labour markets and capital investment as well as measures of current and future economic activity.
Forecasting in this manner will lower the likelihood of one's forecasts becoming "stale".
The ability to update one's forecast incrementally in real-time in response to incoming information is an attractive feature of nowcasting models. That is, as the daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly data used to explain GDP is released, the nowcast for current quarter GDP is updated in real-time on a daily basis. In this example, the nowcast could be updated on a daily basis – the highest frequency of explanatory data – as new releases for the series being used to explain GDP came in. Specifically, nowcasts allow for real-time tracking or forecasting of a lower frequency variable based on other series which are released at a similar or higher frequency.įor example, one could try to forecast the outcome for the current quarter GDP release using a combination of daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly data. They are forecasts of the present, the near future or the recent past. "Nowcasts" are forecasts of the here and now ("now" + "forecast" = "nowcast"). In this blog post, Michael demonstrates the use of MIDAS in EViews to nowcast Australian GDP growth on a daily basis.
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